2025.09.06

Orion Breweries IPO: A Familiar Japanese Brand—Is the Pricing Reasonable?

tk2253

Many IPOs are little-known; this one is widely recognized. This post provides facts and valuation context, not a recommendation.

What is Orion?

Japan’s 5th-largest beer company, founded 1957; headquarters in Okinawa. Brand known nationwide and to inbound visitors.

Official site: https://www.orionbeer.co.jp/

Short History

1957: Founded in Okinawa; launched “Orion” beer in 1959.
2019: Acquired via MBO by Carlyle & Nomura Capital Partners.
Recent: Portfolio refresh and hospitality/tourism tie-ins centered in northern Okinawa.
2025: Files to list on TSE Prime (Sept 25).

Business mix (per filings)

Alcoholic & soft drinks; tourism/hotel operations also included.

Overseas availability (illustrative):

Orion is sold in multiple markets outside Japan, including the United States (national retailers), Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea (often branded “The Draft,” historically marketed as “Okinawa” beer).

Flavor profile (official notes)

Orion The Draft — A crisp, clean lager with smooth malt umami; brewed with Okinawan barley and Yanbaru water. The 2020 refresh extended maturation (about 1.2× longer) to reduce off-flavors and sharpen the finish; brand tagline emphasizes “clarity & umami.”
75BEER IPA — Uses five hops (incl. U.S. varieties) and Nago-grown shikuwasa for a fragrant aroma and pleasant bitterness; recent iterations add dry-hopping for extra hop complexity and punch.
75BEER Shima-kaze Pilsner — Soft mouthfeel with rich body and a refined citrus note reminiscent of shikuwasa; features rare Australian hops (<1% of global production) for a bright, aromatic profile.
75BEER White Ale — Mellow wheat texture with citrus-fruity aroma and a subtle spicy nuance; finishes gentle and refreshing.
Southern Star (happoshu/new-genre) — Uses Okinawan rice for easy drinkability; updated with “cooling” hops to further boost refreshment.

Names/lineups can vary by market; check local labels. These notes summarize Orion’s own product materials.

Deal Snapshot

Scheduled listing date: September 25, 2025 (Thu)
Exchange / section: Tokyo Stock Exchange – Prime Market
Ticker : 409A
Offer type & size: Secondary 21,672,400 shares, plus over-allotment up to 3,250,800 shares
Book-building window: Sep 9–12, 2025; final pricing date: Sep 16, 2025
Indicative price (“assumed price”): ¥770 per share (final offer still TBD at pricing)
Lead underwriter: Nomura; co-leads include Mizuho and SMBC Nikko
(Source: JPX initial listing outline and schedule; assumed price per multiple trackers.)

Implied sizes at the indicative ¥770

Implied market cap (at listing shares 40,813,400): ~¥31.4bn
Gross proceeds (seller, before fees): ~¥16.69bn excluding OA, or up to ~¥19.19bn including OA — calculated at the indicative price of ¥770 on 21.6724mn shares plus up to 3.2508mn OA shares.
Source: company/JPX filing; author’s calculation.

Quick Valuation Context

FY2026 (Mar) EPS (cons./forecast): ~¥81.0
FY2026 dividend policy (board-stated): ~¥40 total (¥20 interim/¥20 final); target payout ~50% / DOE 7.5%
BPS (book): FY2025A ~¥464.6; FY2026E ~¥505.7

Valuation at key price points (using FY2026 EPS ¥81.0):

Stock Price	PER (FY26E)	PBR (FY25A BPS ¥464.6)	PBR (FY26E BPS ¥505.7)	Div. yield（¥40）
¥770	9.5x	1.66x	1.52x	5.2%
¥850	10.5x	1.83x	1.68x	4.7%
¥1,000	12.3x	2.15x	1.98x	4.0%

Note: EPS/BPS from sources linked below. The company currently guides to a ¥40 per-share dividend (per filings / major IPO trackers). The indicative price is not final and will be set at pricing.

Why this IPO may draw attention (neutral points)

Brand familiarity: Unlike many small-cap IPOs, Orion is a household name in Japan and among visitors.
Valuation starting point: At the indicative ¥770, metrics screen as single-digit/low-double-digit PER and sub-2x PBR on FY2026E/FY2025A respectively, with a ~5% yield if the ¥40 annual dividend is executed.
Seller overhang clarity: 100% secondary from existing PE owners (Nomura Capital Partners / Carlyle affiliate), with a standard OA; lock-up terms noted in filings.
Regional tourism story: Tourism drivers in Okinawa (e.g., JUNGLIA in northern Okinawa) may provide medium-term support for the island economy and Orion’s brand visibility.

Key Dates (for readers following the deal)

Sep 8: Price range (book-build conditions) set
Sep 9–12: Book-building
Sep 16: Final offer price determined
Sep 17–22: Purchase period
Sep 25: First trading day (Prime Market)

Peer frame (Japan “Big 4” beverages)

Recent forward P/E snapshots (as of early Sep 2025):

Asahi (2502): ~17x
Kirin (2503): ~12x
Suntory Beverage & Food (2587): ~16x
Sapporo (2501): ~54x (notably elevated on turnaround/asset stories)

Quick comps vs. Japan’s “Big Four”

(as of early Sept 2025; Reuters data — forward P/E is consensus-based)

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	Fwd P/E	P/B	Dividend Yield	ROE(TTM)
Asahi Group	2502.T	~¥2.88T	17.0×	1.06×	2.74%	3.15%
Kirin Holdings	2503.T	~¥2.06T	12.1×	1.62×	3.28%	2.24%
Suntory Beverage & Food	2587.T	~¥1.45T	16.0×	1.19×	2.54%	5.23%
Sapporo Holdings	2501.T	~¥0.59T	54.3×	3.01×	0.80%	0.52%

Why Sapporo Trades on a Higher Multiple (neutral context)

In Jan 2024, Singapore-based activist 3D Investment Partners became Sapporo’s largest shareholder (~16% voting rights). The fund has urged reforms and monetisation of real estate holdings.

Sapporo has since reviewed its property portfolio, including Yebisu Garden Place, and moved to solicit proposals/consider a sale, which the market viewed as value-unlocking.

3D’s open letters and presentations have repeatedly called for divesting non-core real estate and refocusing on beverages. This activist + asset dynamic helps explain Sapporo’s elevated valuation versus peers.

Note: Sapporo’s valuation reflects company-specific factors (activist engagement and real-estate expectations) and may not be directly comparable to Orion.

Market Context: Then vs. Now (yen wording)

Investors often recall Suntory Beverage & Food’s July 2013 IPO when thinking about well-known consumer listings. During the 2013–2016 window, the Nikkei 225 traded in a wide range: from ¥13,668.32 at the end of July 2013, up to ¥20,952.71 on June 24, 2015, before correcting to ¥16,026.76 by February 2016 month-end. That path equates to a +¥2,358.44 (+17.25%) rise from the July 2013 close to the Feb 2016 close, and a −¥4,925.95 (−23.50%) move from the June 2015 high to the Feb 2016 close.

Chart: TradingView (Nikkei 225 Index, 1M). Captured Sep 2025.

Case study — Suntory Beverage & Food (2013):

Opened at ¥3,120 (offer ¥3,100) in July 2013; then peaked near ¥5,810 in Feb 2016 before pulling back amid a broader market correction.

Chart: TradingView (Suntory Beverage & Food, 1M, TSE). Captured Sep 2025.

Today (Sept 2025, neutral):

Recent U.S. macro data (Aug jobs: +22k NFP; 4.3% unemployment) have revived recession discussion. If global growth slows, Japanese equities—including the Nikkei 225—could face pressure. In such phases, some investors add regionally anchored consumer staples on weakness, while others stay defensive until visibility improves.

Disclosures & Notes

Offer price is not final at the time of writing; it’s set Sep 16, 2025 via book-building. Initial trading can be volatile and may diverge from fundamentals.
Peer multiples are moving targets; figures shown are recent snapshots for orientation only.
This post is not investment advice. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance and time horizon.

Sources

JPX — “Outline of Initial Listing Issue: Orion Breweries” (Aug 21, 2025).
https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/listing/stocks/new/sjcobq00000240k6-att/09ORIONBREWERIES-OutlineEN.pdf
Orion Breweries — “Board resolution on secondary offering in connection with TSE listing” (Japanese) (Aug 21, 2025).
https://www.orionbeer.co.jp/utility/history/h2025/2025082116031.pdf
TOKYO IPO — “ORION BREWERIES, LTD.” (English)
https://www.tokyoipo.com/top/en/index.php?id=pre&j_e=E&seqid=3203
Diamond Online (ZAi) — “『オリオンビール』のIPO情報総まとめ！” (Japanese, Aug 21, 2025)
https://diamond.jp/zai/articles/-/1055174
Reuters Company Pages (peer valuation context)

Asahi Group (2502.T) — https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/2502.T/
Kirin Holdings (2503.T) — https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/2503.T/
Suntory Beverage & Food (2587.T) — https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/2587.T/
Sapporo Holdings (2501.T) — https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/2501.T/

Reuters (newswire reference for proceeds headline) — “Carlyle-backed Orion Breweries plans Tokyo listing on Sept 25…” (Aug 21, 2025).
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/carlyle-backed-orion-breweries-plans-tokyo-listing-september-25-filing-shows-2025-08-21/

Author’s calculations: Gross proceeds at the indicative ¥770 are computed as price × shares — ex-OA: 21.6724mn × ¥770 ≈ ¥16.69bn; incl. OA (max): (21.6724mn + 3.2508mn) × ¥770 ≈ ¥19.19bn.　

Accessed Sep 6, 2025.

#Breweries #Consumer staples #IPO #Japan equities #Japanese stocks #Okinawa #Orion Breweries #Tokyo Stock Exchange #TSE Prime #Valuation

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