Orion Breweries IPO: Day 1–2 Recap (Sep 25–26, 2025)

Two volatile debut sessions: Day 1 closed at ¥1,950 (+4.7% vs first print), Day 2 at ¥1,750 (–10.3%). All times JST.

IPO Snapshot (for context)

• Listing date: Sep 25, 2025
• Offer price: ¥850
• Total shares offered: 31,697,600

Pre-open (Sep 25)

• 08:56 JST: Indication around ¥1,800 (smartphone order book screenshot from Rakuten Securities here)
  
  Screenshot note (Rakuten Securities‘ app): Screens are for illustrative, informational purposes only. All trademarks/logos are property of their respective owners. Prices/quotes and order-book snapshots are delayed or may differ from official exchange data; please verify independently.

• End of morning session: ¥1,452; Bid vol: 10,396,000; Ask vol: 3,157,700 — nearly the size of the total offering turning over in the first half. (Rakuten app order book screenshot here — same disclaimer as above.)

Day 1 price action (Sep 25)

• Opening/first trade (IPO first print): ¥1,863 at 13:53
• High: ¥2,262 (+166.1% vs offer; +21.4% vs first print)
• Low: ¥1,881 (–16.8% from high)
• Close: ¥1,950 (+4.7% vs first print)

Volume (Sep 25)

• 13:53–13:54 (first 1 minute after open): 7,786,600 shares
• Full day: 34,834,100 shares

1-min chart (TradingView)

Charts via TradingView; app screenshots are illustrative and may differ from exchange data.

Tape-read: what happened after the open

• 13:53 first print ¥1,863 → 14:05 high ¥2,262 (+21.4% vs first print).
• 14:05–14:09 quick unwind to ¥1,957 (–13.5% vs high).
• 14:15 rebound near 5-MA ~¥2,040 (+4.2% vs ¥1,957).
• 14:37–14:40 second leg down to ¥1,881, then range ¥1,900s → close ¥1,950.
• Notable symmetry: the 13:58–14:05 surge vs 14:05–14:09 drop created a mirror move (>10% swings within minutes). Turnover was heavy in both legs (≈5.28M shares up, ≈3.12M down).

Day 2 price action (Sep 26)

• Open: ¥1,950
• High: ¥1,965 (+0.77% from open)
• Low: ¥1,701 (–13.4% from day high)
• Close: ¥1,750 (–10.26% d/d)

Volume (Sep 26)

• 09:00–09:01 (first 1 minute): 1,940,300 shares
• Full day: 38,299,100 shares

1-min chart (TradingView)

Chart note: Same TradingView disclaimer as Day 1.

Day 2 narrative

• With a soft broader tape, the stock opened flat to Day 1 close, quickly tagged ¥1,965, then slid to ¥1,701 by ~09:15 (≈–13.4% from the intraday high), effectively a near open-high to low washout.
• A midday retrace to ~¥1,910 (~+12.3% off the low) faded; selling re-accelerated after 14:30, taking the name from ~¥1,830 to ¥1,750 into the bell (≈–4.37% final leg).
• Margin trading availability likely aided turnover, with Day 2 volume surpassing Day 1.

Key Levels to Watch

• ¥1,910 — Day 2 rebound high; reclaim opens room to ¥1,950–1,965.
• ¥1,750 — Day 2 close / short-term pivot.
• ¥1,701 — Day 2 low; loss of this level risks a deeper fade.
• ¥1,863 — first print anchor.
• ¥2,262 — Day 1 high; supply overhang.

Where we go from here

• At ¥1,750 (~2.06× offer), there’s no clear peer discount. If price can’t retake ~¥1,910, expect range compression or further mean reversion.
• Policy: Okinawa beer tax relief ends Oct 1, 2026, when the national beer tax unifies at ¥54.25 per 350ml. Likely impact is ~¥10 per can (~5% on ~¥200), depending on pricing, mix, and retailer pass-through.

Disclosures & Notes

• Screenshots/charts are for discussion/education; not a solicitation. Data may be delayed/incorrect; confirm with your broker/exchange.
• This post is not investment advice. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance and time horizon.

MWH｜Mrs. Watanabe’s Husband

内向的マッチョトレーダー

筋トレと投資で人生を立て直す40代サラリーマン。 クラシックフィジーク大会出場＆株式トレードの両立に奮闘中。 Saving M&M＝「筋肉とお金、どちらも育て、守り抜く」ブログです。 社会人20年でたどり着いた働き方や休み方の本音をシェアしています。 気合いと根性では続かない時代。だから“積み重ね”が最強です。

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